We open 2026 staring at an industrial market that refuses to sit still. Sales volumes have powered to a striking $68 billion, even as investors grapple with diverging pricing signals. Behind the headline is a sharper story: cap rates are moving in different directions for different asset profiles, and the spread between what sellers ask and what buyers will pay is telling us where confidence really lies.
A market of two tracks
On one track, core logistics facilities in top-tier locations continue to command premium pricing. Deep liquidity chases modern, well-leased assets near population hubs and key freight corridors. These properties benefit from durable tenant demand, resilient e-commerce flows, and infrastructure tailwinds, keeping their yields tighter and their bids competitive.
On the other, more commoditized space faces a tougher bid. Older buildings with functional obsolescence or secondary locations see wider marketing times and more price discovery. Investors price in leasing risk, higher capital expenditures, and less rent growth certainty, pushing cap rates outward and widening the buyer–seller gap.
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Cap rates as a compass
Recent data points to a modest uptick in closed-deal cap rates month over month, even as asking cap rates show a different cadence. That divergence underscores a negotiation battlefield: sellers testing the market with optimistic pricing, and buyers insisting on risk-adjusted returns that reflect today’s debt costs and leasing dynamics. The outcome is a visible fork—tight for core, looser for non-core.
Investors are looking closely at differences between sub-markets. High demand areas with low vacancy rates, plentiful labor and multiple methods of transport continue to provide relatively safe investments.
On the other hand, properties that need significant work or are close to the end of their useful lives have a higher acquisition discount rate than normal. As a result of this change in perception, cap rates have become a guiding force for the sector in directing capital toward properties with strong quality and a more patience-oriented strategy with lower quality properties.
What’s driving the $68B
Momentum didn’t appear from nowhere. Stabilizing interest-rate expectations, better clarity on freight volumes, and continued occupier demand set the stage for renewed deal-making. Portfolio trades and one-off sales alike are surfacing as sellers recalibrate and buyers underwrite with more conviction. Even so, underwriting today stresses cash-flow durability, rent growth realism, and capex discipline more than in prior cycles.
Capital is also bifurcating by strategy. Core and core-plus buyers crowd into institutional-quality assets, accepting tighter yields for stability. Value-add players remain selective, targeting mispriced or operationally improvable properties where they can manufacture yield. This twin-track capital flow mirrors the market’s broader split—quality at a premium, commodity at a discount.
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Outlook: selectivity wins
Heading deeper into 2026, expect disciplined selectivity to define performance. With leasing fundamentals still supportive in many nodes, well-located modern product should hold its ground.
Conversely, assets with functional gaps or location disadvantages will likely clear only when pricing fully reflects their risks. For operators and investors alike, the playbook is clear: sharpen underwriting, prioritize logistics advantages, and align hold periods with realistic exit assumptions.
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This article draws on the original reporting “Industrial Sales Hit $68B as Cap Rates Signal Market Split” by GlobeSt. It covers how industrial deal volume reached roughly $68 billion and how cap-rate movements reveal a bifurcated market across core and commodity assets.